Bad to Worse for Builders in South Africa: Confidence Index Plummets in First Quarter of 2024

The outlook for South Africa's building sector has taken a stark turn for the worse, as revealed by the latest FNB/BER Building Confidence Index for the first quarter of 2024. The index, which serves as a barometer of sentiment in the industry, has plummeted, casting a shadow over the country's economic prospects.

After reaching an eight-year high in the fourth quarter of 2023, the index saw a dramatic decline of 16 points, bringing it to a level of 27 in the first quarter of 2024. This alarming drop places the index at its joint lowest level since mid-2020, indicating a significant shift in sentiment among businesses in the building sector.

According to the BER (Bureau for Economic Research), which compiles the index, the majority of sub-sectors included in the survey experienced a notable decrease in confidence. Building material manufacturers, building subcontractors, architects, and hardware retailers all recorded substantial declines in confidence levels.

The most striking turnaround was observed among architects, with satisfaction levels plummeting from 54% in the previous quarter to just 29% in the first quarter of 2024. This sudden shift underscores a sharp deterioration in both current conditions and near-term outlook for activity within the architectural segment.

However, there were marginal improvements in confidence levels among main contractors and quantity surveyors. Main contractors saw a slight uptick in confidence by one index point, while quantity surveyors experienced a modest increase of four index points.

Despite these minor gains, the overall sentiment remains subdued, with several key indicators pointing towards ongoing challenges within the sector. Constraints such as insufficient demand (indicative of weak order books) and a shortage of skilled labor have worsened, reaching nearly six-year highs.

Main contractors reported that activity maintained a sluggish pace in the first quarter of 2024, with concerns mounting over deteriorating order books and persistent challenges at the start of the building value chain. Additionally, building material manufacturers and hardware retailers faced pressures due to consumer income constraints, resulting in adverse effects on demand.

The BER suggests that while main contractor confidence showed some resilience, the broader outlook for the building sector remains bleak. Weakness at the beginning of the building pipeline, including subdued activity among architects and quantity surveyors, indicates a potential slowdown in growth.

Siphamandla Mkhwanazi, Senior Economist at FNB, cautions that the sector's cooling growth trajectory follows a period of heightened activity driven by increased private investment in energy and favorable interest rates. As such, the subdued performance witnessed in the first quarter of 2024 is expected to persist in the near term.

In conclusion, the sharp decline in the Building Confidence Index paints a concerning picture for South Africa's building sector. With challenges persisting across various sub-sectors and little indication of a turnaround in sight, builders face an uphill battle in the months ahead.